Volume 12, Issue 2 (2-2014)                   IJRM 2014, 12(2): 125-0 | Back to browse issues page

XML Persian Abstract Print


Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Shayan Z, Ayatollahi S M T, Zare N, Moradi F. Prognostic factors of first birth interval using the parametric survival models. IJRM. 2014; 12 (2) :125-0
URL: http://journals.ssu.ac.ir/ijrmnew/article-1-513-en.html
1- Department of Biostatistics, Medical School, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
2- Department of Biostatistics, Infertility Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran , najafzare@sums.ac.ir
3- Department of Family Health and Population, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
Abstract:   (537 Views)
Background: In recent years, the study of birth intervals has been a main determinant of the levels of fertility in the populations, as it is associated with rates of fertility and population growth.
Objective: The purpose of this study was to firstly apply survival analysis for modeling of first birth interval and secondly to explore its determinants.
Materials and Methods: In a cross sectional study, the fertility history of 858 women was collected in rural areas of Shiraz (southern Iran) in 2008. We used the survival analysis such as cox regression and alternative parametric models to evaluate the prognostic factors of first birth interval.
Results: Among the explanatory variables of interest, age at marriage, level of womenchr('39')s education, and menstrual status had highly significant effects on the duration of birth interval after marriage (p<0.01).
Conclusion: It is concluded that the suitable parametric models would be a useful tool for fitting to first birth interval, the fact that has been less paid attention to in researches.
Full-Text [PDF 106 kb]   (185 Downloads) |   |   Full-Text (HTML)  (43 Views)  
Type of Study: Original Article |

References
1. Gyimah SO. The dynamics of timing and spacing of births in Ghana. J Comp Fam Stud 2005; 36: 41-60.
2. Lloyd CB. Growing up global: the changing transitions to adulthood in developing countries. Washington DC, the National Academies Press; 2005.
3. Manda S, Meyer R. Age at first marriage in Malawi: a Bayesian multilevel analysis using a discrete time to event model. Roy Stat Soc: Series A 2005; 168: 439-455. [DOI:10.1111/j.1467-985X.2005.00357.x]
4. Singh OP, Singh VK, Pathak DS. A Probability Distribution for First Birth Interval. Can Stud Popul 2006; 33: 69-81. [DOI:10.25336/P6MW42]
5. Al-Nehedh NNA. The effect of socio-demographic variables on child spacing in rural Saudi Arabia. East Mediterr Health J 1999; 5:136-140.
6. Clegg EL. Starting, spacing and stopping in the reproductive histories of outer Hebridian families. J Biosoc Sci 2001; 33: 405-526. [DOI:10.1017/S0021932001004059]
7. Nahar L, Rahman M. Changes in socio-economic differentials of age at marriage and first birth interval during 1983-1994 in Matalab, Bangladesh. Demography India 2006; 35: 1-14.
8. West KK. Education, age at marriage or first birth and labour force participation as predictors of parity transition: An application of discrete multivariate analysis to the study of conditional life table probabilities. Can Stud Popul 1987; 14: 89-109. [DOI:10.25336/P65K59]
9. Cochrane S. Effects of education and urbanization on fertility. In: Bulatao R, Lee RD, ed. Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries. New York, Academic Press; 1983: 587-626.
10. Rasekh A, Momtaz M. The Determinants of Birth Interval in Ahvaz-Iran: A Graphical Chain Modelling Approach. J Data Sci 2007; 5: 555-576.
11. Hashemi A. Family planning program effects in rural Iran. Available at: http://ase.tufts.edu/econ/events/ neudcDocs/SaturdaySession/Session012/AHashemiFamilyPlanningProgramEffects.pdf.
12. Shahi A, Kamjoo A. [Interpregnancy interval and pregnancy outcomes in women who refer to maternal hospitals of Bandar Abbas, Iran, 2001-2002]. J Hormozgan Univ Med Sci 2005; 9: 197-201. (In Persian)
13. Rasekh A, Momtaz M. The determinants of birth intervals in Ahvaz-Iran: a graphical chain modeling approach. Proceeding of the 8th Iranian statistical conference. Iran, Shiraz University; 2006: 226-241.
14. Mohammadi BM, Hashemi M, Ghaedi H, Zarei M, Sharifi SH, Bahraini M. [Related factors with intervals between pregnancies in women who referred to health center of Boushehr city in 2005]. Dena, Quarterly J Yasuj Faculty Nurs and Midwifery 2006; 1: 11-19. (In Persian)
15. Hajian KO, Asnafi N, Aliakbarnia-Omrani F. [The patterns and determinants of birth intervals in multiparous women in Babol, Northern Iran]. J Mazandaran Univ Med Sci 2009; 40: 852-860. (In Persian)
16. Shayan Z Ayatollahi SMT and Zare N. A parametric method for cumulative incidence modeling with a new four-parameter log-logistic distribution. Theor Biol Med Model 2011; 8: 3. [DOI:10.1186/1742-4682-8-43]
17. Malek Afzali H. [Estimates abortion due to unwanted pregnancy in Iran]. Fam Health 1996; 2: 2-7. (In Persian)
18. Mousavi M, Sadegh Zadeh M, Ostadzadeh N. Epidemiological aspects of abortion in women who referred to Gom Health Center in 2002. 8th Conference on Reproductive Medicine, Feb 7-8, 2002.
19. Kumar G, Danabalan M. Determinants of delayed first birth. Ind J Commun Med 2006; 31: 272- 273.
20. Nardi A, Schemper M. Comparing Cox and parametric models in clinical studies. Stat Med 2003; 22: 3597-3610. [DOI:10.1002/sim.1592]
21. Feng W, Quanhe Y. Age at marriage and the first birth interval: the emerging change in sexual behavior among young couples in china. Popul Dev Rev 1996; 22: 299-320. [DOI:10.2307/2137436]
22. Lofstedt P, Ghilagaber G, Shusheng L and Johansson A. Changes in marriage age and first birth interval in Huaning county, Yunnan province, people's republic of China. Southeast Asian J Trop Med Public Health 2005; 36: 1329-1338.
23. Islam S. Differential determinants of birth spacing since marriage to first live birth in rural Bangladesh. Pertanika J Soc Sci Hum 2009; 17: 1-6.

Send email to the article author


© 2020 All Rights Reserved | International Journal of Reproductive BioMedicine

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb